Possible Chase(s) This Weekend

I am currently monitoring the progress of our next major weather maker. I will begin to assess and compare model runs tomorrow to begin making forecasts for a possible 2 day (Friday, Saturday) event across East Texas and Dixie Alley this weekend.

Here was the outlook discussion from the SPC this morning:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 AM CDT TUE APR 20 2010

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

CORRECTED FOR DATE ERROR

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD
INTO/ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE
PERIOD...AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEAKENING/SHIFTING MORE NEWD TOWARD THE MIDWEST.  MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY DAY 6 AND BEYOND...BUT AGREEMENT IS
SUFFICIENT DAYS 4-5 /FRI. AND SAT. APR. 23-24/ TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.

IT APPEARS ATTM THAT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
THREAT WILL EXIST DAY 4 /FRI THE 23RD/...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
APPARENT ATTM FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO SSWWD INTO SERN TX.  HERE...A
MOIST/UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED...AND WITH FAVORABLE
SHEAR -- INCLUDING MID-LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS OF 50 KT -- ATOP THE
FRONTAL ZONE...THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AN
ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY
REGION DAY 5 /SAT. THE 24TH/...WITH A SIMILARLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LIKELY NEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
FRONT.  BOTH DAYS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WHILE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLY-STRONG SHEAR
ARE ALSO INDICATIVE OF TORNADO POTENTIAL.