Thursday, April 29, 2010

Bittersweet Day


Departed Monroe, LA with Cooper at 9:30pm Friday to set up for what we anticipated was going to be a big day for supercells and tornadoes across northern Mississippi. We staged in Greenville, MS on Friday night and departed for our first high risk chase at 6am. At this particular time, convection was already occurring across northern LA into southeast AR but we decided to head east toward I-55 instead. At this point, storm initiation was occurring well the south of our location around the southeast LA/MS border and to our west along the I-20 corridor in LA. Taking this into consideration, we decided to drive south on I-55 toward Yazoo City where we staged and rested for a while.

After taking a look at the morning sounding from the NWS in Jackson, the latest RUC, and surface and upper air charts, we decided that it was best to reposition further north, therefore we began moving north on Hwy 49W toward Belzoni, a town with major road options in all directions. However, around 10:30AM, Cooper and I observed a pair of storms in Northeastern LA that we felt had potential to go severe. Therefore we decided to turn around and head south on 49W, before cutting across State Hwy 149 and 14 to get to US 61 in the town of Anguilla.

Around this time, the southernmost cell became supercellular and was warned on by the NWS in Jackson. We flew south on 61 in an attempt to get south of it, and managed to get to the town of Valley Park about 10 minutes before the tornado was forecasted to hit. Around this time, we experienced a complete failure of radar on the computer and I-Phone (GR Level 3 & Radarscope). After several intense minutes of contemplation, I decided to call several people for nowcasting. I was fortunate to get in touch with Christopher Barber, a fellow NELA Skywarn storm spotter. Using some exceptional nowcasting by him, as well as my own visual skill, Cooper and I managed to get about a mile south of the tornado’s path just as it approached the highway.

Around the same time we set up to observe the tornado, another chaser, Andy Pettis parked behind us and informed us that there was damage done in Eagle Bend, MS. Using the brief window of time we had before we were slammed by RFD, I managed to identify the tornado and captured several pictures of it crossing US-61. Afterward, I followed Eddie to the Eagle Bend community to assist with search and rescue efforts and to conduct damage surveys. This is how the rest of the day would be spent across northwest Mississippi.

Special thanks goes out to Christopher Barber for his excellent nowcasting while we were under the gun, Dylan Cooper for a good job navigating and nowcasting, and Don Wheeler for teaching me a lot of what I know about storm chasing. It took me roughly 13 months for me to catch my first tornado. I never thought it would be a historic EF-4 long track tornado on a high risk day in Mississippi. This tornado stayed on the ground for almost three hours and a total of 149.26 miles and was one of two EF-4 tornadoes on this day. There were total of 56 tornadoes across Dixie Alley on that day. Sadly, 12 lives were claimed by this powerful force of nature.


Long track supercell and tornado crossing US-61.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Going Mobile Today & Saturday


A significant weather situation is shaping up for today and tomorrow across the region. I will be mobile in the field this afternoon and early Saturday morning through the evening. Track me on the spotter network map located at the bottom of the home page. Also, tune into the live chasecam next to the spotter network map. As things begin to initiate, I will begin streaming video to the internet. You can also access streaming through my qik site at http://qik.com/kf5cnt and spotter network at http://www.spotternetwork.org/google.php.

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Possible Chase(s) This Weekend


I am currently monitoring the progress of our next major weather maker. I will begin to assess and compare model runs tomorrow to begin making forecasts for a possible 2 day (Friday, Saturday) event across East Texas and Dixie Alley this weekend.

Here was the outlook discussion from the SPC this morning:
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 AM CDT TUE APR 20 2010

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

CORRECTED FOR DATE ERROR

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD
INTO/ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE
PERIOD...AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEAKENING/SHIFTING MORE NEWD TOWARD THE MIDWEST. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY DAY 6 AND BEYOND...BUT AGREEMENT IS
SUFFICIENT DAYS 4-5 /FRI. AND SAT. APR. 23-24/ TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.

IT APPEARS ATTM THAT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
THREAT WILL EXIST DAY 4 /FRI THE 23RD/...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
APPARENT ATTM FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO SSWWD INTO SERN TX. HERE...A
MOIST/UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED...AND WITH FAVORABLE
SHEAR -- INCLUDING MID-LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS OF 50 KT -- ATOP THE
FRONTAL ZONE...THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AN
ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY
REGION DAY 5 /SAT. THE 24TH/...WITH A SIMILARLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LIKELY NEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
FRONT. BOTH DAYS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WHILE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLY-STRONG SHEAR
ARE ALSO INDICATIVE OF TORNADO POTENTIAL.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

April 2, 2010 Bust

Photobucket

Departed Monroe, LA around 1:30pm with Wheeler and Ostarly, and met up with Cooper in SHV. After staging, we made our initial target area Longview, TX. On this day, we hoped to be in position to intercept severe thunderstorms before they went linear ahead of the cold front. However, stratus clouds plagued northeast Texas throughout the morning hours ahead of ongoing convection from the night before.

As we departed SHV, I observed a clearing in the low level clouds over our target area. As expected, temperatures increased rapidly and approached 80 degrees before a cluster of thunderstorms developed. These cells raced off to the northeast at 45mph making it impossible for us to get in position to intercept them. However, these cells never went severe and no reports were made by the plethora of chasers located along the I-30 corridor. This would turn out to be the only play of the day as stratus began to dominate the area once again effectively ending our chase as a BUST; the 2nd of the year for me (Jan 23 the other bust day).

The limiting factors on this particular day were the ongoing convection across North Central Texas, lingering stratus clouds that suppressed diurnal heating, strong meridional flow aloft, veering surface winds, the location of the main surface low (SE North Dakota), a weak secondary surface low (south central OK), and high LCL's (1700-1800m) further eastward into Louisiana. LCL height's of >1000m is considered ideal for tornadogenesis.

-JP